Professor Emeritus of International Affairs 
   Dept of International Affairs 
   George Bush School of Government and Public Service 
   Texas A&M University
   College Station, TX 77843-4220 USA

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AUTHORED AND EDITED BOOKS

• Crisis in Foreign Policy:  A Simulation Analysis.  Indianapolis, Bobbs Merrill, 1969.

• Courses in Foreign Policy:  An Anthology of Syllabi (edited with Kenneth Waltz).  Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1969

• International Crises:  Insights from Behavioral Research (ed.) New York:  Free Press, 1972.
• Ch.1: Some issues in the study of international crisis
• Ch. 9: Threat, time and surprise: A simulation of international crisis
• Ch. 12 Alternative models of international crisis behavior (with Linda P. Brady)
  

• CREON:  A Foreign Event Data Set (with Maurice A. East, Margaret G. Hermann, Barbara G. Salmore and Stephen A. Salmore), Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage  Professional Papers in International Studies 2, 02-024, 1973.

• Why Nations Act (with Maurice A. East and Stephen A. Salmore, eds.).  Beverly Hills, Calif.:  Sage, 1978.

• New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy (with Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and James N. Rosenau, eds.).  Boston:  Allen & Unwin, 1987.

• American Defense Annual, 1994 (ed.) New York: Lexington, 1994.

• Violent Conflict in the 21^st Century: Causes, Instruments & Mitigation  (Charles Hermann, Harold K. Jacobson and Anne S. Moffat, eds.) Chicago, IL: American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 1999.

JOURNAL ARTICLES AND BOOK CHAPTERS

• Eden, Lorraine, Charles F. Hermann and Stewart R. Miller. 2021. Evidence-Based Policymaking in a VUCA World.Transnational Corporations, 28.3: 159-182. SSRN Download Link
• 
  
• Some Consequences of Crisis which Limit the Viability of Organizations,"Administrative Science Quarterly 8, 1 (pp. 61-82) 1963.
  
• Reprinted in John G. Maura (ed.) Readings in Organizational Theory. New York, N.Y.: Random House (pp. 343-358) 1971.

•  "An Attempt to Simulate the Outbreak of World War I" (with Margaret G. Hermann), American Political Science Review 61 (pp. 400-416) 1967
•   Reprinted in
•   James N. Rosenau (ed.) International Politics and Foreign Policy revised edition.  New York, N.Y.: Free Press (pp. 622-639) 1969.
•  Horst-Dieter Ronsch (ed.) Simulation Internationaler Prozesse. Opladen:  West German Press (pp. 347-374) 1972.
•  Harold Guetzkow, Philip Kotler, Randal L. Schultz (eds.) Simulation in Social and Administrative Science.  Englewood, N.J.: Prentice-Hall (pp. 340-363) 1972.

• "Validation Problems in Games and Simulations with Special Reference to Models of International Politics," Behavioral Science 12 (pp. 216-231) 1967.

•  reprinted in Lucian Kern and Horst-Dieter Ronsch (eds.) Simulation Internationaler Prozesse. Opladen:  West German Press (pp. 239-260) 1972.

•  "The Comparative Study of Foreign Policy," World Politics, 20 (pp. 521-534), 1968.

• "Simulation: Political Processes," International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences.  New York: MacMillan-Free Press, Volume 14 (pp. 274-281) 1968.

• "International Crisis as a Situational Variable," in James N. Rosenau (ed.) International Politics and Foreign Policy, revised edition, New York, N.Y.: Free Press (pp. 409-421) 1969.
•  reprinted in John A. Vasquez (ed.) Classics of International Relations.  Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall (pp. 171-181), 1986.

• "Effect of Size, Development and Accountability on Foreign Policy" (with Stephen A. Salmore).  Peace Research Society Papers, XIV (pp. 15-30), 1969.

•  "Search Under Crisis in Political Gaming and Simulation," (with James A. Robinson and Margaret G. Hermann), in Dean G. Pruitt and Richard C. Snyder (eds.) Theory and Research on the Causes of War.  Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall 1969.
•  reprinted in Lucian Kern and Horst-Dieter Ronsch (eds.) Simulation Internationaler Prozesse.  Opladen; West German Press (pp. 330-346) 1972.

• "Policy Classifications:  A Key to the Comparative Study of Foreign Policy," in James N. Rosenau, Vincent Davis, and Maurice East (eds.) The Analysis of International Politics.  New York: Free Press (pp. 58-79) 1971.

• "What is a Foreign Policy Event?" in Wolfram Hanrieder (ed.) Comparative Foreign Policy.  New York: McKay (pp. 295-321) 1971.

• "Some Issues in the Study of International Crisis," in Charles F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises:  Insights from Behavioral Research. Free Press 1972.

• "Threat, Time and Surprise:  A Simulation of International Crisis," in Charles F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises:  Insights from Behavior Research. New York: Free Press 1972.

• "Alternative Models of International Crisis Behavior" (with Linda P. Brady), in Charles F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises:  Insights from Behavioral Research.  New York: Free Press 1972.

• "Indicators of International Political Crises: Some Initial Steps Toward Pre-diction," Jartin Janicke (ed.) Herrschaft and Krise.  Oplanden:  West German Press, 1972.
• Reprinted in Edward Azar and D. Ben Dak (eds.) Theory and Practices of Events Research:  Studies in International Actions and Interactions.  New York: Gordon and Breach, 1974.

• "The Adaptation of Foreign Policy Research," (with James N. Rosenau and Philip M. Burgess).  International Studies Quarterly 17 (pp. 119-144) March 1973.

• "Counterattack of Delay: Characteristics Influencing Decision Makers' Responses to the Simulation of an Unidentified Attack" (with Margaret G. Hermann and Robert A. Cantor).  Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 18, No. 1, March 1974.

• "Do Nation-Types Account for Foreign Policy Behavior?" in James N. Rosenau (ed.) Comparing Foreign Policies.  New York: Sage-Halsted, 1974.

• "What Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: Individual, Group, or Bureaucracy?"  Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 3, Winter 1974.
• reprinted in Richard L. Merritt (ed.) Foreign Policy Analysis  Lexington, Mass.: Heath 1975.

• "Comparing the Foreign Policy Events of Nations" in Charles W. Kegley, Jr. et. al. (eds.) International Events and the Comparative Analysis of Foreign Policy.  Columbia:  University of South Carolina, 1975.

• "A Global Monitoring System:  Appraising the Effects of Government on Human Dignity" (with Richard C. Snyder and Harold D. Lasswell).  International Studies Quarterly, June 1976.

• "Conceptualizing Foreign Policy Behavior Using Events Data," in James N. Rosenau (ed.) International Crises and Crisis Management.  London: Teakfield & Heath, 1977.

• "Introduction" (with Maurice A. East), in Charles F. Hermann et al.  (eds.) Why Nations Act.  Beverly Hills:  Sage Publications, 1978.

• "Foreign Policy Behavior:  That Which is to be Explained" in Maurice A. East, et. al. (eds) Why Nations Act.  Beverly Hills:  Sage Publications, 1978.

• "Decision Structure and Process Influence on Foreign Policy," in Charles F. Hermann et. al. (eds.) Why Nations Act.  Beverly Hills:  Sage Publications, 1978.

• "Conclusion:  Toward Integrating the Perspectives" (with Stephen A. Salmore, Margaret G. Hermann and Barbara G. Salmore) in Charles F. Hermann et. al. (eds.) Why Nations Act.  Beverly Hills:  Sage Publications, 1978.

• "Validating International Relations:  Forecasts to Develop Theory," (with Warren R. Phillips and Stuart J. Thorson), in Nazli Choucri and Thomas W. Robinson (eds.) Forecasting in International Relations.  San Francisco:  W. H. Freeman, 1978.

• "Why Foreign Policy Changes Are Not Met:  Bureaucratic Restraints on Foreign Policy Adaptability" in Charles Kegley (ed.) Challenges to America: United States Foreign Policy in the 1980s.  Sage International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies Volume 4.  Beverly Hills:  Sage Publications, 1979.

• "The Validity Issue with Respect to Event Data" in Don Munton (ed.) Measuring International Behavior:  Event Data Validity Problems.  Canada:  Dalhousie University Press, 1979.

• "Simulating U.S. National Security Decision Making" (with Donald A. Sylvan). Simulation and Games, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 1979.

• "Identifying Behavioral Attributes of Events that Trigger International Crises" (with Robert E. Mason) in Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson and Alexander L. George (eds.) Change in the International System.  Boulder, Colo. Westview Press, 1980.

• "Toward Realizing Human Dignity: Evaluating Institutional Impacts on Basic Human Values" (with Margaret G. Hermann) in Vincent E. McHale, Barry B. Hughes, and Kenneth W. Grundy (eds.) Evaluating Transactional Programs in Government and Business. New York: Pergamon, 1980.

• "Instrumentalities" in Margaret G. Hermann, Patrick T. Callahan, and Linda P. Brady (eds.) Describing Foreign Policy Behaviors.  Beverly Hills, Calif.:  Sage 1981.

• "Substantive Problem Areas" (with Roger A. Coate) in Margaret G. Hermann, Patrick T. Callahan, and Linda P. Brady (eds.) Describing Foreign Policy Behaviors.  Beverly Hills, Calif.:  Sage, 1981.

• "Judgments of Country Specialists about Foreign Policy Formulation:  The Operation of Internal Decision Processes" in Gerald W. Hopple and James A. Kuhlman (eds.) Expert-Generated Data:  Applications in International Affairs. Boulder, Colo.:  Westview 1981.

• "Some Initial Problems and Possible Solutions in Measuring Detente Processes: Perspective of an American Social Scientist" in Daniel Frei (ed.) Definitions and Measurements of Detente:  East and West Perspectives,  Cambridge, Mass.: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, and Hain, 1981.

• "Choosing Units of Analysis" and "Inquiry Problems and Future Research" in Judith A. Gillespie and Dina A. Zinnes (eds.) Missing Elements in Political Inquiry.  Beverly Hills, Calif.:  Sage, 1982.

• "A Look Inside the 'Black Box':  Building on a Decade of Research" (with Margaret G. Hermann) in Gerald Hopple (ed.) Biopolitics, Political Psychology and International Politics.  New York:  St. Martin's Press, 1982.

•  "Defining National Security" in John F. Reichart and Steven R. Sturm (eds.) American Defense Policy.  Baltimore:  Johns Hopkins University Press, 1982.

•  "Bureaucratic Constraints on Innovation in American Foreign Policy" in Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf (eds.) Perspectives on American Foreign Policy.  New York:  St. Martin's Press, 1983.

•  "Foreign Policy" in Stuart Nagel (ed.) Encyclopedia of Policy Studies.  New York:  Dekker, 1983.

• "Foreign Policy Research" (with Paul Labmert) in Stuart Nagel (ed.) Basic Literature in Policy Studies.  Greenwich, Conn.: Jai Press, 1984.

•  "War" Essay for Lincoln Library of Essential Information.  Columbus, Ohio: Frontier Press, 1984.

• "The Synthetic Role of Decision-Making Models in Theories of Foreign Policy:  Bases for a Computer Simulation" (with Margaret G. Hermann) in Michael D. Ward (ed.) Theories, Models and Simulations in International Relations.  Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1985.

• "New Foreign Policy Problems and Old Bureaucratic Organizations" in Charles W. Kegley and Eugene Wittkopf Perspectives on American Foreign Policy, New York:  St. Martin's Press, 1987.

•  "Trends Toward Crisis Instability:  Increasing the Danger of Nuclear War" in Steve Cimbala (ed.) Challenges to Deterrence in the 1990s.  New York:  Praeger Press, 1986.

• "The Evolution and Future of Theoretical Research in the Comparative Study of Foreign Policy" (with Gregory Peacock) in Charles F. Hermann, Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and James N. Rosenau (eds.) New Directions on the Study of Foreign Policy.  Boston:  Allen & Unwin, 1987.  Pp. 13-32.

• "Superpower Involvement with Others" in Stephen Walker Role Theory and Foreign Analysis.  Durham:  Duke University Press, 1987.

•  "Preface:  The Mershon Center at Twenty Years" in Joseph Kruzel (ed.) The American Defense Annual, 1987-88.  Lexington, Mass.:  Lexington, 1987.

• "Enhancing Crisis Stability:  Correcting the Trend Toward Increasing Instability" in Gilbert R. Winham (ed.), New Issues in Crisis Management, Westview Press, 1988.

•  "Crisis Stability" in Joseph Kruzel (ed.) American Defense Annual:  1988-89. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington, 1988.

• "Begun but Unfinished" in Joseph Kruzel (ed.), Journeys Through World Politics:  Autobiographical Reflections of Thirty-Four Academic Travelers.  Lexington, Mass: Lexington, 1989.

• "How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy Behavior" (with Margaret G. Hermann and Joe D. Hagan) in C.F. Hermann, Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and James N. Rosenau (eds.) New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, Boston:  Allen and Unwin, 1987 (pp. 309-338).

• "On International Crises and National Security" in Edward A. Kolodziej and Patrick Morgan (eds.) International Security and Arms Control.  Westport, Conn.:  Greenwood Press, 1989.

• "New Foreign Policy Problems and Old Bureaucratic Organizations" in Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf (eds.) The Domestic Sources of American Foreign Policy:  Insights and Evidence.  New York:  St. Martin's Press, pp. 248-265.  1988.

• "The Comparative Study of Foreign Policy Perspectives on the Future" (with James A. Caparaso, et. al.) in International Studies Notes 13, Spring, 1988.

• "Modeling the 1973 Soviet Decision to Support Egypt" (with Philip D. Stewart and Margaret G. Hermann) American Political Science Review 83, Number 1, March 1989. pp. 35-59.

• "Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How:  An Empirical Inquiry" (with Margaret G. Hermann) International Studies Quarterly 33, Number 4, December 1989.  pp. 361-388.

• "The Situational Imperative:  A Predictive Model of Foreign Policy Behavior" (with Valerie M. Hudson, Eric Singer) Cooperation and Conflict XXIV, 1989.  pp. 117-139.

• "Changing Course:  When Governments Choose to Redirect Foreign Policy" International Studies Quarterly 34, Number 1, March 1990.  pp. 3-22.  (This article is an edited version of the International Studies Association presidential address delivered at the 30th Annual Convention, London, England, March 30, 1989.)

• "Hostage taking, the presidency, and stress" (with Margaret G. Hermann) in Walter Reich (ed.) Origins of Terrorism:  Psychologies, ideologies, theologies, states of mind.  Cambridge University Press, pp. 211-229.  1990.

• "Crisis"  in Joel Krieger (ed.) The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World.  New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 205-206.  1993.

• "Explaining Self-Defeating Foreign Policy Decisions: Response" (with Margaret G. Hermann).  American Political Science Review 86 (September 1992) 3.  Pp. 762-767.

• "Avoiding Pathologies in Foreign Policy Decision Groups" in Dan Caldwell and Timothy McKeown (eds.) Force, Diplomacy and Leadership.  Boulder, Co. Westview Press.  1994.

• "Building Relations: Possible Futures between the Successors to the Soviet Union and the United States" in Manus I. Midlarsky, John A. Vasquez, and Peter V. Gladkov (eds.) From Rivalry to Cooperation: Soviet and American Perspectives on the Post-Cold War Era.  New York: Harper Collins.  1994.

• "Reflections on Foreign Policy Theory Building" in Laura Neack, Jeanne A.K. Hey, and Patrick Haney  (eds.) Foreign Policy Analysis. Prentice Hall.  1994.

• "Continuity and Change in International Relations: A Commentary on Joseph S. Nye, Jr."  in John D'Arms, et al. (eds) Becoming More International and Global: Changes for American Higher Education. 1995.

• "Bureaucracy" in Bruce W. Jentleson & Thomas G. Paterson (eds.) Encyclopedia of U.S. Foreign Relations. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.

• “Problem Identification in Sequential Policy Decision Making: The Re-representation of Problems” (with Robert S. Billings) in Sylvan, Donald A. and James F. Voss (eds.) Problem Representation in Political Decision Making.  New York:  Cambridge University Press, 1998, pp. 53-79.

• “Resolve, Accept, or Avoid: Effects of Group Conflict on Foreign Policy Decisions” (with Janice Stein, Bengt Sundelius, and Stephen Walker) International Studies Review 3 (2, Summer)  Pp. 133-168, 2001.

• “People and Processes in Foreign Policymaking: Insights from Comparative Case Studies”(with Ryan Beasley, Juliet Kaarbo, Margaret Hermann) International Studies Review 3(2, summer) Pp. 217-250, 2001.

• "Crisis" in Joel Krieger (ed.) The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World (2^nd ed.).  New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 182-183.  2001.

TECHNICAL RESEARCH REPORTS AND POLICY DOCUMENTS

• Studies in Deterrence:  Validation Studies of the Inter-Nation Simulation (with Margaret G. Hermann).  Final Report to U.S. Naval Ordnance Test Station, China Lake, California, December 1963 (NOTS TP 3351).

• Crisis in Foreign Policy Making.  Final Report to Project Michelson, U.S. Naval Ordnance Test Station, China Lake, California, April 1965 Contract N123 (60530) 32779A.

• Research Tasks for International Crisis Avoidance and Management.  A final report prepared for the Advanced Research Projects Agency, Human Resources Research Office of the Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-75-C-0053) October 1975.

• Inventory of Public Policy Capabilities of The Ohio State University Faculty and Staff.  Mershon Center, Ohio State University, 1975.

• Report to Commission on the Organization of the Government for the Conduct of Foreign Policy.  "Maintaining the Quality of Decision Making in Foreign Policy Crises:  A Proposal" (with Margaret G. Hermann).  Volume 2, pp. 124-136, June 1975.

• Comparative Research on the Foreign Events of Nations -- Phase I (with Margaret G. Hermann).  A final report prepared for the National Science Foundation (GS-40356) November 1976.

• CREON:  Comparative Research on the Events of Nations (with Margaret G. Hermann).  Quarterly Report:  Mershon Center, The Ohio State University.  Volume 2, Number 3:  Spring 1977.

• Force and Polity (with Allan R. Millett).  Quarterly Report.  Mershon Center, The Ohio State University.  Volume 3, Number 1:  Autumn 1977.

• Identifying Behavioral Attributes of Events that Trigger International Crises (with Robert E. Mason).  A final report prepared for the Advanced Research Projects Agency, Human Resources Research Office of the Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-75-0765) October 1978.

• Simulations of Organizational Effects on Crisis and Other National Security Problems:  A Feasibility Study (with Donald A. Sylvan).  A final report prepared for the Advanced Research Projects Agency, Human Resources Research Office of the Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-75-0765) October 1978.

NEWSPAPER COLUMNS

• "View Kissinger Acts in Context of His Vision," in the Columbus Dispatch, October 6, 1985.

• "City Must Reorganize, Face School Challenge" in the Columbus Dispatch, July 21, 1985.